Fish or Cut Bait

2003-04-29T00:13:00.000-04:00

For a .500 club, things sure aren't looking too good right now in Lorialand.

1) No matter how much they wish it were so, and no matter how big a signing bonus Loria gave him back when he owned the Expos (it's called sunk costs, Jeff, look it up), Justin Wayne just isn't a good prospect. He got another chance to demonstrate that tonight against the D-backs. Not that there's really anyone else in the high minors that it would have been better to call up. Dontrelle Willis is tearing it up at Double-A, but it makes little sense to add him to the 40-man and start his service time clock running just for an emergency start...

2) ...except that isn't going to be just one start, really. Dr. Andrews found a torn ligament in Burnett's elbow, thus disproving Burnett's scientific hypothesis that you can't throw a 95 mph fastball with a torn ligament in your elbow, and the surgery is tomorrow. Don't be surprised if you see a certain veteran left-hander's name screaming at you from the headlines. The recovery time is getting shorter, but even so AJ won't be back from the TJ until next spring training at the earliest.

That sound you heard was the bottom falling out of the Marlins playoff hopes.

Tejera will join the rotation, but there's nobody to replace Tejera as long man in the bullpen; hence the idle thought that maybe calling Willis up to fill Burnett's spot might not be so crazy. Not that I want Torborg in control of the kid's arm and future.

2003-04-29T00:12:00.000-04:00

3) Oh, and the icing on the cake -- Sunday's soul-grinding 20-inning loss to the Cards. They had to score five runs in the ninth to tie it (including homers from Castillo and Castro), but Alex Gonzalez left the bases loaded three different times in the extra frames before the Fish were put out of their misery. Mike Lowell tied a record by being intentionally walked three times in the game; each time it was so the Cards could pitch around Derrek, and get to Gonzalez. I guess La Genius LaRussa didn't notice his hot start... or wasn't fooled by it.

Of course no demoralizing loss would be complete without a Jeff Torborg bepuzzlement. He brought Tejera in to face exactly one batter in the seventh; the end result of that decision was having to use Pavano in the 19th, and the end result of that was Wayne's start tonight, I don't want to hear "Oh, there's no way Torborg could have known it would go that long on Sunday"; it was a dumb move. Why even have a guy like Tejera in the 'pen if you're just going to use him as though he were Jesse Orosco? He's there precisely for games like Sunday. And the team is paying for it tonight -- Wayne gave up four runs in 5 1/3 (on 100+ pitches) before having to be yanked, meaning the bullpen gets to throw a few more innings when what they needed was a nice eight inning start to give them a breather.

They could have moved Redman up a day, but he threw 130 pitches his last time out and is thus due for a shellacking, so that wouldn't have worked either.

Oh wait, I forgot -- pitch counts don't mean anything. Just ask AJ.

2003-04-27T15:48:00.000-04:00

The morning papers are sending out mixed signals about Burnett.

The Sun-Sentinel says it's probably just bone chips, and if surgery is needed he might just be gone for a couple of months. The Herald, on the other hand, is more pessimistic: surgery = gone for the year, according to them.

I don't know who's right. I don't think they know who's right, and likely won't until Dr. Andrews pokes around on Monday. But you read those articles, and you wonder how these imbeciles keep their jobs. Everyone admits Burnett couldn't get loose in the cold weather in New York, yet somehow he was allowed to throw a ton of pitches anyway. The news that Burnett's fastball wasn't breaking the mid-90s, down about 4 mph from what he usually rings up on the radar gun when healthy, doesn't seem to be news at all to Larry Beinfest, yet somehow that information never translated into "Gee, maybe we should take it easy on him."

I wish I had something else to talk about with this team other than their blatant incompetence in handling the one real asset the franchise has, but I don't. It's this, or I-Rod fooling around with a position switch again, but barring catastrophic injuries to Mike Lowell and Miguel Cabrera I don't expect to see him anywhere other than behind the plate.

Honestly, Burnett and his agent should sue Torborg, Beinfest and the Marlins. He's in his arbitration years; their horrific mismanagement will have a direct negative impact on his future earnings. At worst, even if he loses the case, the team will have to trade him just as a PR move, and anything that gets him out of the meat grinder this organization has turned into is a good thing.

2003-04-26T21:29:00.000-04:00

AJ Burnett is headed back to the DL.

Let's talk about his pitching line from last night, to see where Torborg screwed up. (He must have screwed up, right?) Here's Burnett's line after five innings:

5 IP, 2 hits, 3 runs, 3 walks, 5 Ks, 82 pitches.

Nearly half of those pitches (36) came in an awful first inning, which is when he gave up all three runs. But settled down nicely after that, which is why he was allowed to come out for the sixth. So, since this blog has turned into the Jeff Torborg Second-Guessing Society recently, let's play everyone favorite game... You Be The Manager!

First off... do you have someone warming up already? Probably not -- the way AJ's been throwing the last four innings you have think you can get another inning or two out of him and still keep him within spitting distance of 100 pitches. Plus you let him hit in the bottom of the 5th, so there likely won't be an easy opportunity to pinch-hit for him soon.

AJ starts the 6th inning with an 0-1 groundout by Pujols. So far so good.

Next batter is Edmonds, who walks on five pitches after he bunts (?) the first pitch foul. 89 pitches, one on one out. Do you call the 'pen yet to get someone warming up?

Rolen strikes out, on six pitches. Then Tino Martinez singles on an 0-1 pitch -- first and second, two outs, 97 pitches. One more out and you can get someone ready for the seventh, pinch-hitter be damned.

Next four pitches, to Renteria -- ball, ball, strike, double. 101 pitches, now you're down 4-0, runners still on 2nd and 3rd, and the #8 hitter at the plate. You know what's coming -- intentional walk to Matheny to get to Tomko, who's working on the shutout and isn't going anywhere.

Burnett to Tomko -- foul strike, ball, foul strike, ball, foul, ball, ball, and it's now 5-0. AJ hits the showers.

Not a whole lot of opportunity for second-guessing, is there? The Tomko at bat is really the only one you could say Burnett shouldn't have been in there for with any conviction, but even then if Tejera wasn't ready, you're kind of stuck.

Nope, this was just one of those outings. The problem is it comes on the heels of two other bad, too-long starts for Burnett. At what point does Torborg start erring on the side of caution with these kids? Burnett has walked sixteen batters in sixteen innings over his last three starts, precisely because Torborg keeps giving him chances to "turn himself around" or "get untracked" or whatever chiches he's tossing out post-game. But you know what? Now it's too late. AJ's headed back to the DL, back to Dr. Andrews to get his elbow examined, and it was all so screamingly, blindingly obviously avoidable that it makes you want to weep in frustration.

On a ballclub run by sane individuals, this would be the final straw for Torborg -- and if Beinfest is trying to protect him from the axe the way he's protected Arnsberg it should be the final straw for him too. I suspect with the Marlins, though, there will be plenty more straws to come. Maybe even enough to build a pyramid.

After all, you bury stuff under pyramids, right?

2003-04-25T18:49:00.000-04:00

In the wake of Mark Redman's 11 K, 130 pitch game on Thursday, I suppose I should clarify why I jump all over Torborg for these outings.

In this case there was some method behind his madness. After Wednesday's 12 inning game, a nice long outing from a starter was just what the bullpen needed, especially considering Braden Looper had pitched in two straight games. And Redman neither relies on arm-straining heat or breaking stuff to get by, nor figures into the Marlins plans long-term (to be perfectly honest -- it's no knock against Redman, just that guys like Dontrelle Willis and Ryan Snare are closing fast on their MLB debuts), so letting him overextend himself is not the crime against humanity letting AJ do it is.

All that said... it was still a bad idea.

The blogosphere is buzzing right now with pitch count talk, and the main argument against using them as an accurate measure runs something like, "You don't know how many warmup pitches he threw, or how often he threw over first base, or how many of what type of pitch he threw, so using pitch counts is about as reliable as using batting average as an indicator of offensive effectiveness."

Well, those first two points (warmup pitches and pickoff attempts) are just crap. I will say that point three (how many and what type of pitches) is a spot-on criticism though, which is why Will Carroll's Velocity Project is so important. Will's theory is that it's not the number of raw pitches you throw, but the number of pitches you throw after you become fatigued, that are dangerous. Until he gets enough data to prove/disprove that theory though, pitch counts are all we have to go on.

Yes, some guys will be just as strong at pitch #125 as they were at #1, while others will start to struggle at #75. And yes, 90 pitches for someone throwing sliders and splitters will probably be a lot worse than 110 fastballs and change-ups from someone like Redman. But until we've got a way to measure that stuff with a simple metric (and yes I know about PAP, but you can't just glance at a box score and figure that out) then pitch counts will have to do.

And the Marlins pitch counts so far have been ugly. By any measure, 130 pitches is ugly. For a staff as young and important to the future of the franchise as they are, with the injury history they carry, a pattern of pushing starters too hard is not what you want in a manager.

2003-04-24T13:52:00.000-04:00

In the aftermath of last night's 12-inning win, I'd like to admit to one of my few, few, few mistakes (yes, even us super-geniuses mess up from time to time.)

Earlier in the year I said Carl Pavano wouldn't cut it as a starter, and that the bullpen would be the best place for him. So far, I've been very wrong on that one. Last night he threw 89 pitches over seven innings and finished strong, striking out the final batter he faced and throwing first-pitch strikes to nine of his final ten batters. His PQS numbers on the year:

April 2 - 6 IP, 7 hits, 3 BB, 3 K, 0 HR - PQS score 2
April 7 - 6 IP, 5 hits, 0 BB, 5 K, 3 HR - PQS score 4
April 12 - 6.2 IP, 9 hits, 0 BB, 3 K, 2 HR - PQS score 2
April 17 - 6 IP, 2 hits, 1 BB, 5 K, 0 HR - PQS score 5
April 23 - 7 IP, 6 hits, 1 BB, 5 K, 0 HR - PQS score 5
PQS Average: 3.6

Those are solid numbers, especially those K/BB ratios. In fact Pavano's been the Marlins most reliable starter this year. Even better, Torborg hasn't been leaning on him -- he's averaging just 91 pitches a start -- so he should be able to keep it up for a while. I still stand by my assertion that he's an injury risk if he gets pushed, but if his pitch counts are kept well south of three digits he might just make it through the year.

2003-04-23T14:33:00.000-04:00

I was going to use Monday's off-day to do a State of the Marlins address... I guess today will have to do.

Let's take a look at where the club stands:

After yesterday's win over the Milwaukee Budlewsers, the team is 10-11, 2.5 games back of the Expos in the East, and (in your utterly meaningless stat of the moment) 2.5 back of the Rockies for the NL wild card. Florida will have to play at a .567 clip the rest of the way to meet Torborg's 90 win target.

On the hitting front, Juan Pierre has cooled down considerably, and his walk rate (5.5/100 AB) is back to within his career norms. It was a nice little pipe dream while it lasted though. Alex Gonzalez continues to lead the club in OPS (1129) which says more about his ridiculous start than anything. He hasn't really cooled down much though, even after missing three games with a bit of a gimpy ankle, and I'm beginning to be a little concerned about him as my Hacking Mass shortstop. Nobody else, with the possible exception of Hollandsworth, is performing above or below expectations, which doesn't bode particularly well for the future.

The big "story" is of course the running game. An 82% success rate is great by any measure, but as you can see at the left, it's had almost no impact on the offense as a whole. That's principally the result of timing -- the Marlins have been stealing a lot of their bases with two outs (56% of their attempts), which rarely produces runs either in theory or practice. I also think that their opponents just don't care. Pudge is the only guy in the lineup anybody should be worried about, and the thought process is probably along the lines of "If Encarnacion wants to take second base with Hollandsworth at the plate, let him". Maybe there should be a "Defensive Ennui" designation, along with "Defensive Indifference".

Pitching-wise, here's some numbers -- 105.5, 100.3, and 95.8. Those are the average pitch counts for Penny, Burnett and Beckett so far. Take out Beckett's Opening Day disaster, when he couldn't get out of the third inning, and his pitch count jumps to an even 100.0. Yes, it's early, but that's kinda the point. This is how they're getting used in April for pity's sake. Goddess knows what Torborg will do to them once they're "stretched out" (shudder).

The bullpen, Nunez excepted, has pretty much recovered from its poor start. Their K/BB rates are very poor though, except for Almanza's, so this is still an area of concern. Nunez, incidentally, looks done to me. Six homers in 8 2/3 innnings is beyond ugly, and the Marlins keep changing their story as to why they think he's struggling -- first he was tipping his pitches, then his arm angle was too low, then his arm angle was fine but he had some other mechanical problem (three guesses who came up with that one, first two don't count.) Here's a thought: maybe his 190 inning workload over the last two years, and his 77 appearances last year, just burned him out. He's a reliever. It happens.

2003-04-20T12:11:00.000-04:00

Apparently I was wrong in yesterday's "Jeff Torborg is a big fat liar" rant. For this I apologize profusely.

You see, AJ Burnett didn't have his best stuff on Saturday. Says so right here. His fastball couldn't get out of the low 90s; he said after the game that he couldn't get loose; and, most damningly, Jeff Torborg saw him stretching his right forearm during the game.

Yes, that's the same forearm that landed him on the DL out of spring training.

Like I said, I apologize for the lapse in fact checking. I should know better than to go off half-cocked like that, when a review of the available evidence clearly shows that I should have been FULLY cocked. Won't happen again, I promise.

So, to sum up: Jeff Torborg is a big fat stupid liar. There, I feel better.

2003-04-19T19:53:00.000-04:00

Help!

According to Thursday's box score, Luis Castillo stole three bases against the Phils. However, the game log on espn.com only shows him stealing second in the first inning, and then swiping third on the double steal in the fourth.

If anyone can fill in the missing SB for my Fish-ball chart it would be greatly appreciated.

2003-04-19T19:27:00.000-04:00

Jeff Torborg is a big fat liar.

Here's what he said in February about Burnett, and specifically his 104.8 pitches per start last year, a number that was fifth in the NL: "He won't have that number of pitches. We won't do that. It makes no sense. I'd rather lose a game than hurt a guy."

Here's what Torborg actually did in Saturday's game:

Burnett completed the fifth inning down 2-1 and having thrown 88 pitches, including a 31-pitch fourth, with a 58/30 strike to ball ratio. Take out a great first inning though and the ratio drops to 48/29, and he'd started 11 of the last 15 batters off with a first pitch ball.

The Marlins then scored three runs in the top of the fourth to go ahead 4-2.

So -- Burnett's the pitcher of record, and is in line for the win. His control's slipping, even though his stuff is still (I'm assuming) good.

Coming off a tough 113 pitch outing the start before, a manager who gave a good goddamn about saving his arm shouldn't have blinked before going to the 'pen. Am I wrong here? This was Burnett's third start since coming off the DL -- you know, that magical place pitchers go when their managers abuse their arms. It was the perfect time to say, "Attaboy, AJ. You kept us in there and now the offense has come through. Hit the showers, and we'll go get you the win."

Not Torborg though. Not the big fat liar.

Burnett comes out for the sixth, throws eight balls and eight strikes to four batters -- allowing two hits and a walk -- before Torborg finally brings in a reliever.

Final tally -- 104 pitches, and eventually one more run on Burnett's ledger.

Burnett wasn't working on a no-hitter. He wasn't overly sharp. He was coming out soon enough anyway. Oh, and it's April, so it's not like a playoff spot was riding on this game.

And Torborg let him throw 104 pitches, instead of 88.

When Burnett hits the DL again this year, it's crap like this you need to remember. Not the 125 pitch shutout that's probably coming sometime in May. It's these 16 stupid pitches, or the stupid pitches he'll throw in the start after that shutout, that are the killers. A manager who meant what he said would be taking opportunitites exactly like this to save Burnett's arm. Torborg didn't.

Jeff Torborg is a big, fat liar. Pray for his firing, Marlins fans.

2003-04-19T13:15:00.000-04:00

I was down in Detroit for the single greatest musical experince of my life, which was the reason for the radio silence. If you're in Minny or LA or any of the other stops on this little tour of theirs, you will regret it for the rest of your life if you miss 'em. If you've seen the movie you shouldn't need even that much encouragement.

One quick little hit before I get into playing catch-up: Ozwaldo Mairena got dropped from the 40-man. Given that his ERA was 6 down in Triple-A Albuquerque, and he'd allowed 17 hits in 9 innings, I wouldn't read too much into it. Could be a sign a trade is in the works, but I doubt it.

2003-04-15T10:57:00.000-04:00

On the bright side, Brad Arnsberg's job appears to be in jeopardy, according to the Beantown Oracle. Gammons wrote that before Monday, incidentally, when Arnsy and Torborg let AJ throw 113 pitches despite him having horrible command (55 strikes, 58 balls.) Burnett's pitches by inning: 11, 20, 34, 23, 25. I can only assume they left him out there for the 5th hoping the Fish would score a couple of runs and allow him to notch that all-important 'W'. Two starts into the year and that lip-service they paid to over-use and pitch counts has been tossed out the window. Swell. Who had April 14th in the pool?

2003-04-15T10:42:00.000-04:00

I guessed I jinxed Juan Pierre by saying kinda-nice things about him -- the hitting streak stopped at 12, and he's been ohfer since. But that's OK... I take it all back anyway.

Here's how Juan is paraphrased in this morning's Sun-Sentinel:

"...he acknowledges that he rarely walks because pitchers want to make him hit the ball."

Yes, that must be it. Because he's a slap hitter, pitchers are unafraid to simply groove fastballs, and Pierre just never gets a chance to work the count.

There are two conclusions that can be drawn from this: One, that's a load of crap, and he doesn't draw walks becuase he doesn't possess the skill and/or the inclination; two, it's true, which means Pierre will never be an effective leadoff hitter unless he starts hitting .350+ every year. Take your pick.

2003-04-12T20:53:00.000-04:00

Juan Pierre is hitting .404.

Juan Pierre has a hit in every game he's ever played for the Marlins. All 11 of them... and counting. No, wait, make that 12 -- I just checked the boxscore in tonight's game.

Juan Pierre stole his sixth base tonight too. He, for a couple of weeks at least, has been the quintessential table-setter, and a lot of the credit for the way the offense has been clicking has to go to him.

Some other fun facts: his full name is Juan D'Vaughn Pierre. The picture on his espn.com profile page makes him look like a character from Fat Albert. PECOTA says there's nobody quite like him in baseball history.

Is he for real? Ummm...

I won't get semi-excited about the streak until it hits 20 games, but more importantly, until he starts taking walks I don't think he'll be anything other than a liability at the top of the order in the long run. But man, is he zoned in right now.

2003-04-10T18:13:00.000-04:00

So the Hall of Fame is feuding with Nuke and Annie. Huh.

I love Bull Durham. It's one of my favorite baseball movies ever, and I've seen it dozens of times. Despite that, and despite my usual skill at attuning myself to the politics of the films I watch, somehow I completely missed the anti-Bush agenda hidden in the film! My God, how insidious -- and how brilliant really, considering the movie came out nearly 15 years before he was even elected President. Kudos to Hall Kommandant Petroskey for taking a stand against the forces of unAmericanism, and for refusing to celebrate a film that quite possibly contains coded messages to al Qaeda somewhere within it. I always thought that "Young girls do get wooly" bit was suspicious...

Seriously, though -- if Petroskey somehow can't distinguish between the film the Hall was supposed to honor, and the statements of a couple of the actors who appeared in the movie, he needs to get his prescription checked and the dosage upped. EVEN if you vehemently disagree with Tim and Susan on the war, why take it out on Ron Shelton? It's his damn movie after all. He deserves better than this, even after Tin Cup.

Nuke LaLoosh isn't against the war. Crash Davis isn't against the war. Annie Savoy isn't against the war. That's who the Hall was honoring, not Saradon and Robbins (who, incidentally, won whatever debate there might have been with Petroskey with that "I believe in democracy, freedom and the '69 Mets" closer on his letter). Petroskey has joined the second tier of baseball @$$clowns with this one, right alongside Pete Rose and just behind the uber-@$$clown BaalzeBud himself.

2003-04-10T17:47:00.000-04:00

Much has been made of I-Rod's five-walks-in-five-PAs game from Tuesday, and how weird it is. My only comment is to quote Warren Zevon: "Even a dog can shake hands."

2003-04-10T15:49:00.000-04:00

80 pitches.

Forget how many runs Burnett gave up on Wednesday, or his walks or K's or anything. Forget that the bullpen held up, or that Pudge homered again and Pierre kept the hitting streak going, and that Florida notched the win. The only number that means a thing from Wednesday is that 80. If Arnsberg (Torborg has given him responsibility for making pitching changes this year) is serious about monitoring the pitch counts of the young guns, then suddenly the future suddenly looks a lot rosier.

2003-04-08T18:48:00.000-04:00

Time to play a little catch-up. And I'm in a silly mood, as I prepare myself to see The Core tonight. What if we could indeed, Mr. Tucci.

Sunday's game: Penny's velocity was good; in fact, he looked just fine, despite being shelled by the Braves. He just seemed to just be over-anxious due to his long layoff. Hopefully Vlad's uniform's quest for vengeance ends with the suspension, and it doesn't go and pull a Venom or something the next time the clubs meet.

Despite Torborg's waffling Pudge got the day off, and Redmond was behind the plate. The dreaded Mark Redman/Mike Redmond battery has yet to be unleashed though. With any luck Bud Selig will be in attendance the first time it happens, and the resulting homonymic vortex will suck his lyin' ass into oblivion. Yes, Mr. Baalzebud, a team owned by the Walt Disney Corporation is the first small-market success story of the revenue sharing era. @$$hole.

Monday's game: It took him until the third inning, but Pavano finally pumped a fastball above 90 mph. Huzzah! Huzzah! He was actually doing quite well until the She'ff Gary and the Jones Boys caught up with him. He threw first pitch strikes to the first nine batters he faced, which probably made Torborg and Arnsy feel all squishy inside, he allowed just one hit through four innings, and left without walking a batter (although he did plunk Vinny Castilla). Like clockwork though he ran into trouble after 50-60 pitches. In fact those three home runs to Sheffield, Jones and Jones (I can never decide whether the law firm moniker is better for them than the Old West one) came on pitches 68, 75 and 79. I'm gonna keep hammering away at this every time Pavano gets a start -- he would be much, much more effective in the bullpen. Run him out there for two innings, 20-30 pitches, and he could actually provide some value to the team. Keep sending him out there to get roughed up every fifth day the second or third time through the order, and he's just getting set up up to hurt himself again when he "reaches back for a little extra" to get out of a jam.

Juan Pierre also ran his hitting streak to seven games on Monday. I'm more impressed by him walking, his third free pass of the year. Pierre's career walk rates and OBPs:

2000 - 6.5 BB/100 AB, .353 OBP
2001 - 6.6 BB/100 AB, .378 OBP
2002 - 5.2 BB/100 AB, .332 OBP
2003 - 10.3 BB/100 AB, .469 OBP (32 plate appearances)

Obviously the sample size is pitifully small, and it probably doesn't mean anything. But it's possible that Pierre has drastically changed his approach at the plate, now that he's out of Coors, and isn't just hacking at everything. Hmm.

2003-04-06T22:31:00.000-04:00

You'll notice a new section at left -- the Fish-ball Runs Tally.

The first section is pretty self-explanatory. It records how many steals the Marlins rack up this year, and how many times they get caught.

The second section indicates the statistical benefit of those steals. This stems from the research done for the (sadly out-of-print) book The Hidden Game of Baseball by Pete Palmer and John Thorn. They figured out the average runs scored from each on base scenario. For instance, with a runner on second and one out, the average team will score 0.699 runs. Working from their chart you can figure out the theoretical benefit of a stolen base, and the theoretical cost of a caught stealing.

Theory is all well and good, but it pales next to the real thing. The third section records how many actual runs the Marlins running game gets them. If Juan Pierre steals second, and I-Rod drives him in with a single, then I'll give the running game credit for a run they wouldn't otherwise have had. If I-Rod follows the steal with a homer, they get credit for nothing -- Pierre would have scored anyway. If Pierre gets caught stealing, and I-Rod homers, then the running game just cost them a run.

Interesting numbers after six games. The Marlins have only been caught stealing twice, but both times the out cost them a run. And all their stolen bases? Nada -- each time the runner scored, he would have scored anyway. The statistical benefit isn't all that great either, as eight of those steals came with two outs. Those numbers will start evening out at some point, but it sure does look funny right now.

2003-04-05T23:25:00.000-05:00

Holy frejoles!

The offense continues to thump the ball, and when I say 'thump' what I really mean is 'beat the living crap out of future Hall of Famers'. Nine runs including three homers in two innings off Maddux, en route to a 17-1 win. Pretty much every ball they hit off Maddux was crushed, who looked... man, I hate to say he looked done, but his 37th birthday is coming up in a couple of weeks, and the pinpoint control that has been his trademark was nowhere to be seen on Saturday. He was leaving extremely hittable balls floating around the strike zone, and the Marlins took advantage.

As far as the Hall of Fame talents in the game, Beckett looked much better this time out, but getting staked to a nine run lead does wonders in terms of relaxing a pitcher. He struck out nine in six innings, against three walks, and got taken out after a completely reasonable 100 pitches.

The hot hands on offense continued their tear. Pierre was 3-for-5 and scored three runs, and is now hitting .476; Lowell and Gonzalez (Gonzalez!!!) each homered for the third straight game, with A-Gon adding a triple for good measure. I-Rod had three more RBI to give him 9 on the year. Even Hollandsworth finally got into the act with a couple of doubles.

This isn't one of the best offenses in the league (at least I don't think it is...) but it sure is fun to watch right now.

2003-04-05T11:11:00.000-05:00

On to Friday's game. I saw a bit of it on TBS, and Michael Tejera looked pretty darn great. He was working that change-up like a yo-yo, and any time you can make batters the caliber of Sheff and Chipper look foolish you have got something there my friend. Of course he's headed back to the bullpen once Penny and AJ are back, because Carl Pavano is the Annointed One as the fifth starter. Who cares that Tejera's junk would look absolutely filthy following Josh or AJ's raw heat, or that Pavano's career record positively screams that he can't hold up as a starter? Torborg and Arnsy know best. Not that it matters; Tejera will be right back in there as soon as somebody breaks down again.

On the other hand, they could probably use Tejera in the bullpen. Here's the Marlins 'pen after four games (of course these numbers are meaningless with such small sample sizes):

Almanza, 0.00 ERA; Looper, 4.50 ERA; Spooneybarger, 6.00 ERA; Phelps, 7.71 ERA; Nunez, 10.13 ERA; Neal, 16.20 ERA.

That is not what you'd call an auspicious beginning. Those ERAs will calm down of course, but Nunez looked bad on Friday, and Neal not much better. This may not be the team strength the Marlins though it would be.

And of course, no game recap would be complete without mentioning A-Gon's sudden power surge. Two homers on Friday, and three in two games. Whatsupwidat? There's two possible theories here -- one, the work he did building his shoulder back up after last year's injury has translated into extra power, and he's in line for something of a breakout year; two, he got lucky off some less than stellar pitching and will now spend the rest of the year cranking lazy fly balls and hitting .225/.305/.380. Which one do I think is true? Well... I will point out that his one walk in four games so far is actually an improvement over his career best rate (30 in 145 games in '01). I wouldn't get your hopes up.

2003-04-05T10:53:00.000-05:00

Re: yesterday's Arnsberg rant.

For the record I just want to say that I've never met the man, and I don't believe he's actually some sort of con artist. He probably does believe he's doing good work. The problem is that he's not. He's really something of a joke.

I'll leave it up to you whether "well-intentioned clown" is better or worse than the picture I painted of him yesterday.

2003-04-04T16:13:00.000-05:00

Joe Sheehan's latest column over at BP includes the next cause he's taken up -- now that Erubio Durazo has been liberated, he's turning his attention to Ramon Castro. Free Ramon Castro! Free Ramon Castro!

That same column features a run-down on his Rotowire staff keeper league team, the same league where I have Castro for a buck. Wouldn't it be ironic if... well, let's not jinx the poor fellow, he's suffered enough. Free Ramon Castro! Free Ramon Castro!

In the interests of full disclosure, here are the Marlins I have this year in my two main roto leagues that use NL players:

- In the Rotowire staff league (mixed 5x5), I have Castro ($1), and Don Levinski in my minor league system.
- In the Midnight Madness league (NL 4x4) , I have Redmond ($1), Beckett ($16), and Miguel Cabrera in the minors.

Yup, that's it. O me of little faith.

2003-04-04T11:02:00.000-05:00

Just got today's Prospect Report update from Mr. Goldstein -- Miguel Cabrera launched an Opening Day grand slam for the AA Carolina Mudcats. Cabrera, if you don't know, is the reason why Mike Lowell should be renting.

2003-04-04T09:44:00.000-05:00

Mark Indiginous American looked good, the Marlins hit three home runs, and they won their first game of the season.

Hmm, pitching and power... somebody might want to check that out as a formula for winning.

I still find it funny when Redman gives pitching coach Brad Arnsberg some credit for the good outing. Redman's a smart politican if nothing else. The story being pushed is that Arnsberg found a flaw in Redman's mechanics, and had him return to the delivery he was using a few years ago. OK, fine, except that a) this came after Arnsberg screwed up his motion earlier in the spring in an effort to add a couple mph to a finesse lefty's fastball, and b) Redman's delivery seemed just fine last year when he was cruising through a three month stretch of success.

As with Matt Clement and AJ Burnett before him, Redman's success should be credited to Redman pitching well, and not to Arnsberg's ham-fisted experiments in biomechanics. The guy's a flim flam artist. He has more in common with the auto mechanic who finds lots of expensive things wrong with your car when he goes in to change your spark plugs than he does with the Don Gullets and Leo Mazzones of the world. In short, he's a perfect fit for Torborg's staff alongside the pro wrestler fitness coach, and a perfect fit for Loria's organization.

Again, if you want to look at a team that does things properly look at Oakland, who broke down Ted Lilly's mechanics and rebuilt his delivery from the ground up in an effort to keep him healthy. That's a far cry from Arnsberg wandering by AJ Burnett while he's goofing around doing his Kevin Brown impersonation and telling him to keep at it, or the completely illogical rationale behind his tinkering with Redman this spring.

Don't be fooled, folks.

2003-04-03T09:18:00.000-05:00

Also in that article, Ivan says his passed ball problems (three in two games, two of them resulting in runs) are due to him having trouble with the backdrop and miscommunication with the pitchers. This should clear up after a few games, but it's still worth keeping an eye on.

2003-04-03T09:15:00.000-05:00

Hmm, apparently Pavano's fastball wasn't cracking 90 mph. Brad Arnsberg, the pitching coach, says he doesn't trust the radar gun at Pro Player, but that would make it the only stadium in the majors that doesn't juice the speed readings for the home side's pitchers. I take back that 'silver lining' remark -- given the wee shoulder problems he reported in the spring, Pavano might be having his annual breakdown early this year.

2003-04-03T08:41:00.000-05:00

Another loss to the Phils yesterday. This one had a bit of a silver lining though -- Pavano threw very well for about 50 pitches, shutting Philly out for four innings before hitting the wall in the 5th. He delivered first pitch strikes to the first five batters he faced, and 10 of the first 14, before starting to scuffle.

I didn't delve into the game logs too thoroughly, but that seemed to be his usual pattern last year. He'll do fine the first and maybe second time through the batting order, but after that I wouldn't leave your car in the lot beyond the outfield wall, if you know what I mean. His inning and pitch count splits from 2002 show that too -- a 658 OPS against in the first inning, and 768 in 1-3, but then 924 in innings 4-6 and 1327 in 7+; 770 OPS in pitches 1-15, 775 in 16-30, and 816 in 31-45, but jumping to 992 for 46-60.

That looks like the CV of a middle reliever to me. The Marlins are going to need to look elsewhere for a fifth starter.

2003-04-01T19:10:00.000-05:00

Your April Fool's Marlins funny comes courtesy of Baseball Prospectus' Week in Quotes:

"Blisters? Is that what you've heard? ...I mean, yeah, of course--blisters. Why else would an otherwise healthy pitcher continually miss starts at such a young age? Not because he's been told to protect himself under Jeff Torborg, that's for sure."
--Scott Boras, super-agent, on client and Marlins pitcher Josh Beckett

2003-04-01T19:06:00.000-05:00

Jayson Stark's sidebar on espn.com has some interesting comments from Josh about the Opening Day mini-disaster... mainly, about Ivan's pitch calling.

"It's mind-boggling how it got like that... that's not how I pitch", Beckett said about a start where he threw 50% breaking balls. He said he only shook off I-Rod a couple of times, so we'll have to see if they can get on the same page for his next start.

Interestingly, I-Rod fired back that "He kept getting behind... that's why he got into trouble", but a quick peek at the pitch-by-pitch summary puts the lie to that -- Beckett threw a first pitch strike to 12 of the 19 batters he faced, and only saw five 3-1 counts in those 19.

I'm most curious about what Torborg's reaction will be to this little tiff. Who will the ex-catcher side with?

2003-04-01T08:34:00.000-05:00

Didn't get a chance to follow the rest of the game last night, but the damage was done. 8-5 final. The round-up:

The Good: Rodriguez hit his first Marlins homer, a two-run shot off Millwood. Um, nobody in the bullpen sucked. Actually I like that Torborg used his bullpen like it was spring training all over again -- everybody but Neal got some work (including Tejera), and nobody threw more than 29 pitches. Part of that probably stems from not having Tejera available as a true long man, but it's still smart.

The Bad: In the sixth inning, Florida pinch-hit for Tejera facing Millwood. Gerald Williams got the call... gee, in a closer game it might have been nice to have a left-handed hitter (say, Al Martin) to do that, wouldn't it? Juan Pierre sac bunting with the team down by five runs -- can he actually swing a bat?

The Ugly: Three errors from the infield defense -- only Lee emerged unscathed, at least on the scoresheet. Beckett's rough outing, which you can't pin exclusively on the defense.

The Torborg: Part of the problem with carrying three catchers is that you're tempted to try and use them all, especially when you're an ex-backup catcher yourself and remember the pain and heartache of sitting on the bench, forgotten and unloved. After watching him crank his homer, Torborg figuratively (?) patted I-Rod's butt and said, "Atta boy, hit the showers." Mike Redmond caught the final three innings, going 0-for-2 at the plate. Would two more at bats from the #3 hitter have made a difference in a game decided by three runs? Probably not. But when looking for double-switch candidates, most managers don't target their best player.

2003-03-31T17:38:00.000-05:00

Mr. Phelps completed his mission, sort of -- Abreu drove in a run with an infield single, but he struck out Thome.

Beckett's final line: 2 2/3 innings, seven runs (but only two earned), five hits, four walks, one strikeout.

Now the game is over. I'll pick up what's left of it when I get home.

2003-03-31T17:32:00.000-05:00

Beckett's day is done. Castillo makes the inning's second error, allowing two more runs to cross, and Josh follows that up by walking Polanco. Exeunt Beckett; welcome to the big leagues, Tommy Phelps.

2003-03-31T17:25:00.000-05:00

Beckett walks Millwood. 4-0.

2003-03-31T17:24:00.000-05:00

Lowell throwing error keeps the inning alive, and once again Beckett goes 0-2 to a batter (Lieberthal) only to lose him. 3-0 Phils. Is the I-Rod Effect already kicking in for the pitching staff? A rattled Beckett walks Byrd to load them up.

I'm not going to say this game is over already, but part of the problem with the 'little ball' approach is that there's no margin for error. Think about how many slap singles and stolen bases the Marlins are going to have to string together to score three runs. Meanwhile, a team like the A's gets behind by three runs and it's no big deal, because single-walk-BANG it's a tied ballgame.

This isn't the stats-obsessed geek's position talking; it's simply common sense.

2003-03-31T17:17:00.000-05:00

Congratulations to Pat Burrell, for being Josh's first strikeout victim this year. I'm guessing 188 is Beckett's final total when the year is done.

2003-03-31T17:10:00.000-05:00

Now he stole second. Madness in Marlinville!

And once again, nobody gets home, as A-Gone strikes out on three straight pitches. Now that's the Fish I'm familiar with.

2003-03-31T17:07:00.000-05:00

Umm, this is where following along on the 'net has its drawbacks. ESPN claims that Mike Lowell just beat out an infield hit to short. That can't be right. Can it?

2003-03-31T17:02:00.000-05:00

Almost as good. Rollins with the fielder's choice to Derrek, then Polanco flies out.

Blogging a game is fun! I should have done this ages ago. God knows what I'll be referencing by the eighth inning.

2003-03-31T17:00:00.000-05:00

"Josh is in trouble! He's down another pawn!" For some reason Searching for Bobby Fischer always comes to mind when Beckett hits a rough patch. Must be his baby face. Anyway, he just gave up an RBI single to Marlon Byrd after getting ahead of him 0-2. It's only two innings, but so far he's had trouble putting people away. Millwood screws up the bunt though, so if Josh can get Roliins to hit into a DP...

2003-03-31T16:47:00.000-05:00

Fish-ball (trademark pending) in full effect! Pierre on with the bunt single, then swipes second and third while Millwood and Lieberthal gape dumbly like a couple of slack-jawed yokels. OK, I'm not actually watching the game (following along over the 'net) so they probably weren't standing there with their mouths open, but it's a keen image.

Of course I'd be remiss if I didn't point out that the score is still 1-0 after one inning though. I-Rod and Derrek both came up empty.

2003-03-31T16:41:00.000-05:00

On the bright side, none of the other three batters could do much with Beckett- two pop-ups and a grounder the other way.

2003-03-31T16:38:00.000-05:00

A walk to Abreu on five pitches, followed up by a Thome double- poof, 1-0 Phils. Could be worse though, just ask the Mets or Braves.

2003-03-31T16:28:00.000-05:00

And Josh's first pitch of the year is... a ball. Whee! We're underway!

2003-03-30T08:05:00.000-05:00

So before I dash off to a rotisserie auction (my third one since Tuesday, although the other two were online) let's take a look at the Marlins 25-man roster, and try to figure out where those 11 wins are gonna come from. The club did finish 79-83 last year, and Torborg did predict 90 wins...

Outfield: Juan Pierre, Juan Encarnacion, Todd Hollandsworth, Brian Banks, Ice Williams. Pierre and Hollandsworth replace Preston Wilson and Millar. Offensively, that's a loss at two positions. Defensively it's a gain in left, but a loss in center. Yes, Pierre can run like the wind and yes, he works hard, but he's got a rag arm and isn't what you'd call an instinctive outfielder. He's not Roger Cedeno bad, but he's still pretty bad. Having Enky around for the whole year will offset the defensive loss, but he's replacing Cliff Floyd from last year's Opening Day lineup so that can't be a win offensively either. No help here.

Infield: Derrek Lee, Luis Castillo, Alex the Younger, Mike Lowell, Andy Fox, Mike Mordecai. Banks will see some time at first too. Same starting four as last year, so if Gonzalez is healthy whatever gains they get defensively will be given away by his bat. Lee could take a step up, but none of the others likely are.

Catcher: I-Rod, Mike Redmond, Ramon Castro. Rodriguez is a big boost offensively. Defensively, I'm not so sure. CJ was no slouch back there, although his injuries limited him in 2002, and Ivan's game-calling rep is bad -- although I doubt Gary Carter could have done much with the pitchers Texas has been trotting out there for the last decade either.

Rotation: AJ Burnett, Josh Beckett, Brad Penny, Mark Indiginous American, Carl Pavano. Between them last year the (Someday We'll Be) Big Three had one great season, one OK season when healthy, and one bad season when healthy. I see no reason to think the pattern will be any different this year, nor do my psychic powers tell me which pitcher will be which. The only one I have in any roto league is Beckett, who was a keeper from last year. The back end of the rotation is improved a bit, but that's just because it doesn't feature the name 'Julian Tavarez'.

Bullpen: Braden Looper, Vlad Nunez, Michael Tejera, Armando Almanza, Tim Spooneybarger, Blaine "The Magician" Neal, a week or so worth of Tommy Phelps. The top four are the same from last year, and should perform at about the same level, although Nunez makes me nervous (and BP's PECOTA system backs me up on that hunch, giving Nunez 27%+ to either Collapse or suffer Attrition.) Even if he does though, Spooney and a full season from Neal should more than make up the difference. This is the one area the Marlins have definitely improved in, for what that's worth.

Brain Trust: I use that term in the ironic, O Brother Where Art Thou sense. Torborg returns as manager, and the game plan seems to be to run into as many outs as possible on the basepaths. Or is it? Last year, Castillo was a 76.2% basestealer. Pierre was at 79.7%, Enky at 70%, Lee at 67.9%. I-Rod's at 66.7% for his career -- you get the picture. All are right around, or just above, the statistical break-even point to gain a benefit from stolen bases, although the top two guys are enough above that it might make a difference. And they are in the same division as Mike Piazza, so that's a plus. On the other hand, every team they play is going to be geared up to stop them, and Pierre (.332 OBP) still has to get on base for his running to be an effective weapon. So all in all, the Whitey Herzog approach probably won't hurt them... but it won't help much either. That takes us to Torborg's (ab)use of his young charges in the rotation, which last year reached Dickensian proportions. In fact, that's my new nickname for him -- "Fagin" Torborg. AJ's pitch counts for one fine five game stretch last year in late April-May: 125, 125, 105, 121, 117. For the love of God, man, why? He says he'll take it easier on them this year... I'll believe it when I see it.

Bottom line: If this team finishes above .500 the clear MVP will be new trainer Sean Cunningham, for keeping the rotation healthy. That's the only possible place they can really improve.

2003-03-29T10:22:00.000-05:00

I was going to tell you a little bit about myself, but forget that -- the Marlins just chose their fifth outfielder!

Big deal, you say. So what, you say.

The devil is in the details, sez I.

Coming into spring training, the clear favorite for the fifth outfielder's job -- late-inning defensive replacement, pinch-runner, that sort of grunt job -- was Abraham Nunez, who was a top prospect before he got busted in AgeGate and was discovered to be a 25 year old who struggled to hit .250 in Triple-A. But Nunez had hamstring problems, which opened the door for Al "No, I'm Not a Mormon, Why Do You Ask?" Martin. Al had a good spring, finishing up hitting .342 with a couple of dingers, looking good in the field, batting left-handed (something the team needs) and just generally outplaying his competition. You know, the kind of thing that wins you a job anywhere but in the Land of Loria.

Then came the kicker -- a couple of days before the team made their final roster decisions, they approached Al and (according to him at least) said he had the job provided he signed a waiver allowing them to demote him within 45 days of the beginning of the season, without him being able to reject the demotion and become a free agent (a right major league veterans have). Al said no; the team said so long, and made the same offer to Gerald Williams, who reckoned his chances of getting big-league work elsewhere as just a tick above 'zero' and happily signed on the dotted line.

Al Martin was scheduled to make $325,000 if he made the club. The Marlins would have been on the hook for that had he refused his minor league assignment and left the organization. So, to protect an 'investment' that's just $25,000 more than the league minimum salary, Florida voluntarily lost the services of the best guy for the job.

Just to rub it in, Martin signed with the Devil Rays about 90 minutes after the Marlins sent him packing.

Oh, and in a related note, Jeff Torborg smoked some crack and declared that the team would win 90 games. With this kind of commitment to winning, how can they miss?